The $10 Million Super Bowl Ad?

Each year the cost of buying an ad during the Super Bowl increases. This year's 30-second ads went for $2.5 million, which of course doesn't even include production of the ad itself. Yet each year there is no shortage of advertisers willing to write big checks to ensure that their products get exposed to the biggest TV audience of the year. Super Bowl ad inventory exists in a rarefied world where price inelasticity is redefined each and every year.

This year a whole new dimension was introduced into Super Bowl ads which I believe foreshadows a further escalation in the value of the 30-second Super Bowl spot. The dimension that I'm referring to is the newly discovered infinite after-life of these spots made possible by broadband-delivered video.

But while broadband-delivered video powering Super Bowl XL ads available after the game is certainly newsworthy, I think the really big idea is that this capability creates a historic opportunity to fuse the best of brand advertising with the best of online advertising. The results of this are going to be quite powerful.

Super Bowl Ads Support Traditional Branding Efforts
Super Bowl ads conform to traditional brand advertising rules. Super Bowl advertisers want to get their message in front of the largest desirable audience possible to create awareness of their (often new) products or services. But while they seek to drive eventual adoption and revenues, those results are not directly measurable, nor is immediate consumer engagement with the brand a possibility.

Further, given the likelihood of bathroom and food breaks, not to mention the socializing that happens at game parties, the percentage of the 90 million plus people with their sets on who actually see the particular ad drops considerably. And until TiVo came alone, the ad was never even seen again (OK, maybe a few people taped the game on VCRs), unless the advertiser paid to run it on subsequent shows.

I've always thought that these ads, while generating a fair amount of buzz, seemed like a pretty wasteful use of resources. However, my sentiment obviously hasn't been shared by the many who line up each year to write their big checks. In fact, with the fragmentation of audiences over myriad cable channels and other media, it has become harder than ever to find sufficiently large audiences for advertisers' biggest messages. This is why the Super Bowl has become and will continue to be the marquee event of the year.

Broadband Video Creates a Marriage Made in Super Bowl Advertiser Heaven
On the other hand, online advertising works by new media rules — targeting the most eligible audience with an actionable message meant to engage the audience and directly stimulate revenues. Online advertising is all about performance — just ask anyone who's every spent a dime in the medium. These people know that everything can and will be measured, so that ROI calculations can be differentiated all the way down to the most minute changes in ad copy, with the constant goal being to maximize user engagement and action.

As I read the pre-game accounts of all the web sites planning to showcase Super Bowl ads, I sensed that this event was going to be a textbook moment illustrating the power and value of broadband video. And sure enough, having the showcases at Google, Yahoo, AOL, iFilm, MSN, WSJ.com, NFL.com, etc. and elsewhere created a huge incremental number of ad views way beyond those during the game itself. This incremental exposure created unexpected bonus value for the buyers of all those 30-second spots.

However, I contend that this incremental viewing bonus will eventually be considered just a small piece of the new value that broadband video and the internet (and mobile) will create in driving Super Bowl ads to their full-blown potential. And that's why these spots are bound to become far pricier in the future.

What I envision is that the 30-second spot during the game will become the viewer's introduction or reintroduction to the brand or product. Numerous online, broadband-centric tactics will follow, with video being the center of the action. Initial incarnations of these follow-up opportunities were on display this year with a smattering of dedicated landing pages or microsites meant to draw ongoing attention and engagement of visitors. These included efforts from Burger King, Diet Pepsi, Sierra Mist, Anheuser-Busch and Dove. These were all a great start, but given the overwhelming majority of advertisers that didn't have any follow-up, it was clear that there was little understanding of how big the post-game viewing phenomenon would be and/or little creative energy spent figuring out how to capitalize on it.

Don't bet on that happening again. Creative light bulbs should be going on all over the marketing landscape for how to adjust to these new dynamics. As a result, next year and in subsequent years, I think all Super Bowl advertisers will try to encourage viewers to engage after the game not simply to watch the ad again (which they'll do), but also to interact with the brand in a variety of ways. In football terms, the 30-second Super Bowl spot will morph from throwing a long pass (which is accompanied by high drama, but low probability of an actual score) to a executing a more consistent ground game (accompanied by lower drama, but much higher probability of an actual score). This transformation of the Super Bowl 30-second spot will be advertiser nirvana.

How Super Bowl Ads May Work in the Future
I think the new creative tactics will be unveiled next year. I can imagine the Super Bowl spot becoming just one part of a larger online campaign. For example, the TV ad could continue online to see how some tension or uncertainty was resolved (e.g. "does boy get girl?"), or an ongoing story could unfold over numerous follow-on segments, or the ad could announce a contest to engage in some type of activity, etc. Of course the incentive to the user for engaging through deeper levels of interaction would be likely be some kind of special price promotion or reward. The redemption of these incentives and their follow-on sales would all be measurable.

With this added measurability and a direct feedback loop, marketers will have much less anxiety about whether to ante up for the big game, because it will become far more obvious through the follow-up measurement of online results what the real payoff was for their investment. As this value proposition unfolds over time and becomes better understood by both agencies and advertisers, this integrated approach will redefine the playbook for how to launch big brands. It is also going to draw in many new advertisers who traditionally thought of the Super Bowl as out of their reach (thus driving the upward price movement). The power of broadband video is that it's incredibly cheap compared with $2.5 million for a traditional 30-second spot, and it packs a much greater customer engagement punch.

Conclusion
Do these new opportunities to blend traditional brand advertising with broadband-delivered video and online engagement mean that Super Bowl spots will actually go for $10 million someday? Obviously it's too early to tell. But in the advertising community the next steps should be clear — leveraging that $2.5 million investment to maximize the newfound opportunities being created by broadband-delivered video. For all who are concerned about the viability of the 30-second spot, this forecast should come as welcome news!